BNP Paribas Real Estate Investment Management (BNP Paribas REIM) presents its Lighthouse Report for H1 2025, an outlook for the European real estate market using its in-house forecasts, analysis, and the expertise of its local teams. In this tenth edition, BNP Paribas REIM defines its convictions and provides the investment strategies to adopt considering the expected macroeconomic and financial environment for 2025.

BNP Paribas Real Estate Investment Management (BNP Paribas REIM) is pressing ahead with its development strategy centred on its customers and partners.

As European commercial real estate markets adjust, the different asset categories are following diverging trajectories: retail is still in third place, accounting for around 20% of overall investment (vs. 14% at the end of the Covid crisis in late 2021), behind logistics assets, which remain popular, and offices, which are still struggling. Indeed, for the first time, investment in offices and logistics is neck and neck, with each accounting for 25% of overall investment over the last 12 months. After retail premises come hotels, which have flourished on the back of keener investor interest; investment in the category has surged by 40% year-on-year and they now account for 12% of allocations.

Logistics letting markets have generally held up well despite weak economic growth which is expected to remain positive in 2024. Indeed, GDP growth started to pick up in the Euro area at the beginning of the year from +0.5% in 2023 to +0.8 % forecast in 2024.

Occupier concerns about cost control in a still weak economy are slowing expansion. In H1 2024, the market decreased by 5% versus H1 2023. Demand has been lagging and most countries recorded a slow start to the year. Yet, market fundamentals remain healthy despite rising supply in some countries and there are signs of inventories increasing in the second half of 2025.